Goud: Vooruitzichten voor de komende week.......
Gold prices could stay in their current range of $1,550 an ounce support and $1,600 resistance as there’s little news to push values into a new direction, analysts said.
Prices were up on the day and lower the week. The most-active August gold contract on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $1,582.80, down 0.58% on the week. September silver settled at $27.302 an ounce, down 0.25% on the week.
In theKitco gold survey, out of 33 participants, 22 responded this week. Of those 22 participants, 10 see prices up, while six see prices down, and six are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts.
The survey results underscore how non-committal market watchers are for precious metals next week as a whole. Many analysts said the summer doldrums are upon the complex and it wouldn’t be surprising to see gold hold in the current range of $1,550 to $1,600, with strongest support at $1,525.
Several analysts who said gold could test the upside of the current trading range mentioned that the market may take its cue from outside influences.
“We likely favor the upside in gold over the very short-term, if for no other reason than the fact that the strength in grains and oil should lead to generally more buying in commodity indices, which in turn should benefit relative laggards like precious and base metals,” said Edward Meir, commodities consultant at INTL FCStone.
The commodities world has focused its attention in the past week and a half on the U.S. grain markets, specifically Chicago Board of Trade corn and soybean futures, which have pressed to all-time price highs as the agriculture areas of the Midwest are stressed by a persistent drought and high temperatures.
“There is no end in sight to the price buoyancy, for the situation in the drought-plagued growing areas in the U.S. Midwest is becoming more and more precarious,” said analysts at Commerzbank.
The sudden, swift rise in grain prices – corn futures are up roughly 48% since mid-June when the rally started and soybean futures are up about 35% since then – have made some in the markets nervous about a repeat of the food inflation and crisis that was seen in 2008.
At that time sharply higher prices and worries about global food shortages prompted some countries to issue export bans for grains, which likely exacerbated the situation. So far there is no discussion about trade restrictions.
Still, some market commentators worry about the impact on the sluggish global economy. “On the growth front we’re worried about the global impact of the sudden, substantial and ongoing increases in soft commodity prices. This may take a few months to feed through but comes at a particularly unwelcome time as global manufacturing, capex (capital expenditures) and jobs growth are slowing,” Nomura analysts said.
But not everyone said the precious metals markets are concerned – yet. “The grains are a beast of their own with the weather,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior commodities broker with RJO Futures, who said he expects gold to stay in its current range.
LACK OF NEW MONETARY STIMULUS LEAVES GOLD ADRIFT
Gold received little benefit from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s appearances before the U.S. Congress to discuss monetary policy and with no fresh stimulus gold is drifting, analysts said. Unless there is another catalyst, the range-bound trade could be gold’s home for now.
Deutsche Bank analysts said this could be the case for the next month “as meaningful monetary policy action is likely to be absent.”
The Federal Open Market Committee meets next week, but little action is expected then. Instead, analyst said the market will focus on the Fed’s confab in August in Jackson Hole, Wyo., for any possible signals for new stimulus.
On top of this, market watchers pointed out there’s little physical demand to lift gold as gold exchange-traded funds are scoring net outflows and buying from China and India is sluggish. Rains from the Indian monsoon are so far less than expected and that could hurt Indian farmers’ income if lower rainfall means a lower harvest.
“Since the rainy season began seven weeks ago, India has seen 22% less rainfall than the 50-year average. The rural population accounts for approximately 60% of Indian gold demand, and is dependent on good crop revenues,” said Commerzbank analysts.
Next week’s economic reports aren’t likely to have much of an impact, either. The biggest report will be the second quarter U.S. gross domestic product data. Nomura analysts said they expect the report will “show the economy has slowed to well below potential, supporting our QE3.”
By Debbie Carlson