Goud: vooruitzichten komende week........
The Federal Reserve’s meeting next week in Jackson Hole, Wyo., will be under intense scrutiny by the financial markets – including the metals markets – after minutes from this month’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting showed the Fed inching closer to possible quantitative easing.
Precious metals markets rallied after the Fed said members thought that “additional monetary accommodation would likely be warranted fairly soon” unless the economy started to pick up. Market participants took that as a sign that a third round of quantitative easing may finally be arriving. With next week’s Fed confab, investors will listen to hear if Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke builds on that expectation.
In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 32 participants, 24 responded this week. Of those 24 participants, 13 see prices up, while five see prices down, and six are neutral or see prices moving sideways. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts.
Prices were up on the day and the week. The most-active December gold contract on the Comex division of the Nymex settled at $1,672.90 an ounce on Friday, up 3.3% on the week. September silver settled at $30.621 an ounce on Friday, up 9.4% on the week.
“Precious metals appear to have reached a convincing inflection point post the dovish comments from the Fed’s last meeting, the minutes of which were released on Wednesday. The complex has breached resistance levels and is poised to move higher over the next several weeks in our view,” said analysts at Deutsche Bank.
The move over $1,650 grabbed the attention of traders as this was the ceiling of the trading range gold was stuck in all summer.
“Momentum and technicals are clearly gold's friend here, something the metal has been bereft of for a long time. Tourists have not yet bought in, and there is plenty of potential for them to flock in… The anticipation of Chairman Bernanke’s speech Aug. 31 should at least keep prices supported in the coming week,” said Edel Tully, precious metals strategist at UBS.
Several market watchers echoed that view, that gold will likely keep a firmer undertone going into Bernanke’s speech. These market watchers emphasized that a firm undertone doesn’t necessarily mean continued higher prices. It’s possible gold could hold around current levels until the time of the speech, they said.
Up until 2010, the Jackson Hole meeting was of little interest to those outside of the bond market, but it was at the 2010 meeting that Bernanke hinted at the second round of quantitative easing, which actually occurred in November that year.
If Bernanke does not add to the stimulus talk or shows no proof of actual quantitative easing at this year’s meeting, gold and other markets could gave back much of this week's gains, said Ken Morrison, founder and editor of Morrison on the Markets.
“Fundamentally, considering the weak Indian rupee, the market is getting beyond the reach of the largest single gold-consuming nation, India, where demand is already on the decline year over year. Technically, the market needs a clear breakout above $1,680 to ratify this week's uptrend. I don't expect that will happen in the week ahead. The market will be (less than) $1,650 by end of day a week from now,” he said.
Even after the Fed’s meeting, gold’s short-term prospects will be driven by news, whether it is about the eurozone sovereign debt situation or U.S. economic news, said Jeffrey Nichols, managing director of American Precious Metals Advisors and senior economic adviser to Rosland Capital.
“Though we favor gold’s long-term prospects, its short-term path is by no means assured. From a technical perspective, there remains much upside resistance around a number of key chart points all the way up to $1,925 an ounce, the all-time high reached last September.... Should more favorable U.S. economic indicators show an economy continuing to move forward, the chances of imminent stimulative action by the Fed would be reduced - and this would be perceived as a negative for gold,“ Nichols said.
By Debbie Carlson