Goud: vooruitzichten voor de komende week......
Next week’s major focus for markets will be the Federal Open Market Committee meeting and market participants who are looking for higher prices are hoping for some “stimulating” words out of the monetary policy body.
Those words would be stimulating in the sense that the gold market – and most other financial markets – has priced in expectations that the FOMC will issue some sort of quantitative easing announcement when it meets Wednesday and Thursday.
Prices were up on the day and the week. The most-active December gold contract on the Comex division of the Nymex settled at $1,740.50 an ounce on Friday, up 3.1% on the week. December silver settled at $33.690 an ounce on Friday, up 7.15% on the week.
In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 33 participants, 29 responded this week. Of those 29 participants, 22 see prices up, while four see prices down, and three are neutral or see prices moving sideways. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts.
Gold prices notched six-month highs this week after traders bought the metal on ideas that monetary stimulus is coming from the Fed. Ever since the minutes from the last FOMC meeting were released, market participants have purchased gold with the view that more liquidity is coming to the market. Chairman Ben Bernanke’s comments last week amplified those ideas when he said QE could help bring down the unemployment rate. Gold leapt higher Friday when a disappointing monthly payrolls report underscored the problems with job creation in the U.S.
Add to that the European Central Bank announcing a bond-buying program on Thursday and China increasing its fiscal stimulus programs with the announcement of new rail programs this week, making it a feast for market bulls.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank see precious metals in general rising because of this. “We believe the precious metals prices will continue to be driven higher by interest rate and exchange rate trends. Not only will the requirement to reduce the U.S. budget deficit tend to keep interest rates close to current levels and real interest rates negative, but we expect the U.S. will struggle to attract sufficient capital inflows to cover its monthly trade deficit…(keeping) the U.S. dollar weak,” they said.
After a weaker-than-expected August payrolls report, thoughts are that the Fed will announce measures to tackle stubbornly high U.S. unemployment, which is part of their mandate. Nonfarm payrolls grew by 96,000, below the 125,000 gain forecast. The unemployment rate dropped to 8.1% versus 8.3% in July, but the drop was due to a smaller labor force.
Several economists said the numbers were negative for the job picture all around, especially after positive data Thursday from payroll-processing firm ADP showed strong job growth. That raised expectations that Friday’s numbers would follow suit. Now, they said, there is more pressure on the Fed to act with a stimulus program next week.
Kevin Grady, founder of Phoenix Futures and Options, said the gold market will likely hold firm until there’s an announcement by the Fed.
“I don’t see anything that will pound gold ahead of the Fed meeting,” he said.
Grady and several others noted how open interest in gold futures and options has risen sharply in the past two weeks or so, based on the idea of more QE from the Fed. Open interest is the number of outstanding positions in a market. Growth in open interest, accompanied by rising prices, suggests new buying has entered the market. He said there was strong buying on Friday, particularly in options where traders were putting on bullish trades.
But before everyone piles into the market, Grady said, consider this: “If we don’t get QE at the meeting, if they (The Fed) do nothing, it’s going to be very scary in gold, especially after a $100 rally.”
Not everyone is expecting the Fed to move so soon on QE, either. Analysts at Nomura said even with the weak jobs data, it’s not enough to warrant a move next week.
“Economic activity has not been sufficiently strong to produce necessary job gains for the Fed to meet its employment mandate. Nor is job growth weak enough to suggest that the economy is falling off a cliff. Today's report was not sufficiently weak to change our expectations that the Fed will extend the forward guidance about the likely path of the federal funds rate but will not introduce QE3 at the upcoming September meeting,” they said.
Edward Meir, commodities consultant at INTL FCStone, said the Fed has a lot of mixed signals to sort out. The Friday’s jobs data was lackluster, but earlier this week, jobless claims fell to a four-month low, the ADP data was strong and the August ISM services reading also rose more than forecast, The last three indicators “may make the Fed’s upcoming decision somewhat trickier in that the argument for further easing may not seem as persuasive as it once was,” Meir said.
By Debbie Carlson