Korte termijn terugval goud te verwachten........
The bears have won the latest battle in the gold market, with a minor bearish reversal day etched on the daily chart at last Friday's close. That signals a short-term top in the gold market and modest correction and or consolidation near term.
A bearish reversal day is a negative chart pattern. It develops when the market scores a new rally high for the recent move, but then settles near the low of the day and it exceeds the previous day's range. That happened on Friday in December Comex gold futures. That pattern unfolded as the bulls attempted to move the market higher, but then the bulls were unable to defend the push to new high territory and the bears swooped in to sell those new highs.
Since mid August, gold prices have surged sharply higher—from the $1592.10 low on August 15 to Friday's high at $1,798.10 per ounce. That is a big move in a fairly short period of time. Additionally, the market is bumping up against strong daily and weekly chart resistance in the $1,800 per ounce range. Finally, the market has been "overbought" technically, and daily momentum tools have turned negative for now.
Add it all up and you have the market in the midst of a minor short-term pullback.
There is strong chart support seen at the September 26 daily low at $1,738.30. The market may not even pull back that far short-term, but if the bears get hungry that is the level they will be targeting.
The long and intermediate term technical trends are up. But, the short-term trend has turned sideways for now, with short-term resistance at the $1,798/1,800.90 zone. Gains through that ceiling will reignite the longer-term bullish trend momentum. The market remains above the 200-day moving average at $1,661. That is a bullish signal.
The gold market may just be in for near term choppy action. Again, strong support at $1,738 should define the bottom of the near term range.
By Kira Brecht