Wat zijn de gevolgen voor goud als aandelenkoersen instorten ?.........
Perhaps you've heard the saying: Markets go down a lot faster than they go up?
The S&P 500 has gained over 18% since the start of the year, and it's been rallying amid an awful lot of bad news. While traditionally the fourth quarter is a bullish time for U.S. equities, there are a lot of potential stumbling blocks which could trip up the bulls and trigger a healthy stock market slide.
If that were to happen, what would it mean for gold? Let's take a look at the macro economic backdrop and what could lie ahead for stocks and the yellow metal.
U.S. stocks have been climbing the so-called "wall of worry." This year's rally has occurred amid on-going high levels of unemployment in the U.S., sluggish U.S. growth prospects, and recession in Europe, fears of a hard landing in China. Doesn't really sound like a recipe for higher stock prices, now does it?
The answer behind this impressive rally move in 2012 is the U.S. Federal Reserve, of course, and other global central banks. Historically, accommodative central bank policy is bullish for risk assets and this time is proving no different.
The problem lies when the underlying fundamentals might not really match the market's gains. Liquidity-induced rallies may not reflect the underlying reality of corporate earnings outlooks or GDP growth prospects.
Looking for possible triggers for a stock market correction later this year? There are a lot of choices—could be geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, or even China and Japan. There's the fiscal cliff in the U.S., which has automatic spending cuts and tax hikes set to go into place on Jan. 1. Even though many market watchers expect a compromise to be made, that doesn't mean the compromise will actually be bullish for the economy or stocks. Then, there's the earnings outlook. Earnings guidance has been negative recently and some believe the current earnings forecasts just might be a little too rosy.
It's October, after all. Pick your poison. Bottom line? At some point stocks are due for a healthy correction and there are plenty of factors that could trigger a sell-off. But, how do investors prepare for what could lie ahead?
Alan M. Newman, editor of Cross-currents.net warned that over the next few months "every rosy scenario has been discounted" for the U.S. stock market. "If there are any disappointments, I would expect the stock market to correct and to correct big time, as much as 20%, "he said.
How do investors position themselves? Newman advised investors to "buy gold and gold stocks. I think gold shares are undervalued. I'm concerned we will have a big bout of inflation down the road and gold is the way to go."
Looking at specific gold stocks, Newman highlighted Newmont Mining. “I still see it as very attractive," he said. Additionally, Newman explained that Newmont Mining ties it dividend payments to the actual price of spot gold.
"If gold goes to $2,500 an ounce next year, they will be paying dividends of about $4.70, roughly an 8.5% dividend," Newman speculated.
Other gold shares that Newman likes? "Goldcorp and Eldorado Gold," he said.
Gold could be a wealth-preservation tool amid a potential stock market slide, Newman explains. "I'm a very big fan of gold. On a [stock market"> correction, gold stocks will outperform by a wide margin. If you are going to have your money in stocks, it should be in gold stocks," he concluded.
By Kira Brecht