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Intro:
Gold bulls have been rushing for the exits in recent sessions as the $1,800 key resistance ceiling held firm on the early October test.
Volledige analyse:
The bears remain in control of the gold market short-term, and Monday's early sell-off under the September 26 daily low at $1,738.30 per ounce on the Comex December gold futures contract is another negative chart signal. If the December Comex gold contract settles below $1,738 it will confirm a minor top on the daily chart.
Daily momentum indicators remain bearish and have not yet hit oversold levels, which means the minor short-term downside correction could have more room to run. The 9-day relative strength index (RSI) is pointing down at the 34% mark. A move under 30% would represent "oversold" levels, but market can trade at oversold levels for days or even weeks. Bullish traders looking for a re-entry point for long positions will want to watch that indicator for a turn up from oversold levels, as that is a traditional "buy" signal on that RSI tool.
There are several layers of chart support on the downside for traders to monitor. The market has touched 38.2% Fibonacci retracement support in the $1,730 region. Below, there an old daily low is seen at the $1,720 level. Additional Fibonacci retracement supports lie at $1,709 and $1,688. According to traditional Fibonacci theory, markets can retrace 61.8% of their move without harming the overall uptrend.
Bottom line? The market is registering some disappointment that the $1,800 level held firm. Some shorter-term players are booking profits on long positions, which is adding pressure to the market.
Shorter-term, gold is simply letting off a little steam. Watch the 9-day RSI. Once that tool begins to poke higher from oversold levels, a bottom could be forming to this minor corrective wave.
Taking a look at the big picture, the monthly gold futures chart reveals the longer-term primary secular bull trend for gold remains positive. It would take a sell-off under the $1,525 level to harm the longer-term uptrend in gold, and that level is a long way off. This latest sell-off will likely prove to be just another trading blip to the longer-term bull trend in gold.
By Kira Brecht
