Goud: vooruitzichten voor komende week.......
Cautious, range-bound trading may be the trend for the gold market next week as the calendar flips to November, with market watchers saying month-end book-squaring and a preference to wait until after the U.S. presidential election could keep participants at bay.
Prices were down on the day and the week. The most-active December gold contract on the Comex division of the Nymex settled Friday at $1,711.90 an ounce, down $12.10, or 0.7% for the week. December silver settled at $32.036, which was a slight loss for the week of 6.1 cents, or 0.2%.
In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 33 participants, 24 responded this week. Of those 24 participants, nine see prices up, while five see prices down, and 10 are neutral or see prices moving sideways. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts.
Gold prices rose on Friday, supported by a stronger-than-expected estimate of third-quarter U.S. gross domestic product report, which showed the U.S. economy grew by 2%, versus 1.3% in the second quarter. That gave support to U.S. equities and the U.S. dollar weakened, which also supported gold.
The U.S. GDP report has meant improved risk sentiment, said Robin Bhar, metals analyst with Societe Generale. Meanwhile, the recent pullback in gold prices has attracted physical demand and investor buying.
Gold’s inability to break cleanly below $1,700 might have been the result of physical buyers who were absent at higher prices returning to the market, said Sean Lusk, gold and precious metals analyst at Ironbeam. He said he sees firmer prices next week, supported by physical demand and the underlying support of ultra-loose monetary policy by the Federal Open Market Committee.
“The market has pulled back through some key Fibonacci (technical chart) retracement levels … and drew a line in the sand at around the $1,700 level.... Supportive statements released by the FOMC this week after their policy meeting may have provided assurances that if the economy, especially the employment sector, continues to struggle, the Fed could add to the $40 billion in stimulus on a monthly basis if they believe its warranted…. I also believe that this dip in October has brought back some demand, most likely from China and India, in the form of physical buying as well. Bottom line is: I believe gold trades higher into next week,” he said.
While Lusk said he expects higher prices, many market watchers, including Bhar, said it’s likely that gold will likely hold around current levels.
“For the time being, the $1,700 level looks to be a good floor or support for gold,” Bhar said. “But having said that, I don’t see a catalyst next week to send gold higher, unless of course the dollar weakens substantially…So in the absence of a catalyst, more consolidation.”
Several market participants said end-of-the-month positioning will be a feature next week, and barring a solid rally, gold will finish October with a loss. With the uncertainty over the outcome of the U.S. presidential election which occurs Nov. 6, these market participants said being on the sidelines for the short term might be next week’s theme.
Charles Nedoss, senior market strategist at Kingsview Financial, said gold will likely hold between $1,700 and $1,727-30, noting there’s strong support at the low end, but stout resistance at the high. Nedoss said going into next week, the most important economic report will be the U.S. employment data for October, which comes out Nov. 2. It’s the last jobs report before the U.S. presidential election. Analysts surveyed by MarketWatch estimate that the unemployment rate will remain at 7.8% and that 120,000 jobs will be created.
Given the slightly better-than-expected GDP and other economic data, there is some sense the U.S. economy is stable. “With this GDP report, it’s been 13 months that the economy has actually expanded,” he said.
Consumer spending and consumer confidence will also be released next week. On Friday, the final reading of October consumer sentiment indicator slipped slightly from the initial reading, coming in at 82.6. Even though the indicator declined, it is at the highest level since September 2007.
Allen Sykora contributed to this story.
By Debbie Carlson