Goud: de stilte voor de storm.......
Gold inched up again on Monday, continuing the climb for its 7th session as world economies falter – increasing the likelihood of further central bank policy action – which may again prove futile.
The yellow metal will become sought out by investors as an inflation hedge when quantitative easing is pursued again and huge amounts of money are again dumped into the financial system in what seems like an increasingly vain attempt to stimulate growth.
In line with China’s poor data on Friday, Japanese data earlier today showed that their economy slowed greater than expected in 2Q.
Gold and silver markets have been extremely subdued of late with Bloomberg terminals abandoned in favour of the marvellous spectacle that was the London Olympics. Many traders, decision makers and institutional participants were off on holidays and or enjoying watching the Olympics.
The precious metals have been strangely becalmed despite significant volatility being seen in stock markets. Economic data has been poor and largely gold positive and this could result in a bout of buying with the return of important market participants.
The distracting spectacle of the Olympics may have led to market complacency and the cocktail of macro risks and geopolitical risks such as the euro zone debt crisis and events in Syria and Iran could lead to the Olympic calm giving way to a volatile and stormy Fall.
Gold Spot $/oz Daily - (Bloomberg)
It is important to note that markets were also unusually calm during the two weeks of the Chinese Olympics in 2008. The 2008 Summer Olympic Games took place slightly later in August than the London Olympics – starting August 8 and ending August 24.
Only days after the ending of the Chinese Olympics came massive market volatility in September and then seven months of market turmoil.
Similarly to this Olympic year, in Olympic year 2008, gold traded sideways to down in a period of consolidation prior to further gains. Gold bottomed in September 2008 in euro and sterling terms.
Another brief bout of dollar strength saw gold bottom in November 2008 in dollar terms.
Besides the eurozone crisis (and the significant risk of the German Constitutional Court deciding on September 12th to reject the recently cobbled together alphabet soup response to the crisis (ESM etc etc) and significant instability in the Middle East, there is also the not inconsequential risk from the US Presidential campaign and the upcoming ‘fiscal cliff’.
These factors should see gold well supported again in the coming months.