Goud: vooruitzichten voor de komende week.......
Gold prices could rise next week and try to move to the $1,800-an-ounce level as momentum helps to propel prices up, but at least one analyst urged some caution for new buyers.
Prices were down on the day and the week. The most-active December gold contract on the Comex division of the Nymex settled at $1,773.90 an ounce, down 0.23% on the week. December silver settled at $34.577 an ounce, down 0.176% on the week. On the month, gold rose 5.1% and silver gained 9.97%.
Volume in markets may be lighter than usual as China celebrates holidays next week.
In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 33 participants, 24 responded this week. Of those 24 participants, 20 see prices up, while two see prices down, and two are neutral or see prices moving sideways. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts.
Several market watchers pointed out this week that gold priced in euros set a new record high this week, and given the current environment for gold, prices may rise further. “The debt crisis in the eurozone has escalated again, for example, as evidenced among other things by what are in some cases violent public protests against the new austerity packages in Spain and Greece,” said Commerzbank.
Gold prices are holding above the $1,770-an-ounce level a level that technical-chart analysts say offers some near-term support. Spencer Patton, chief financial officer and founder of Steel Vine Investments, said he’s bullish on gold and sees the market making “a new leg higher.”
Supported by monetary easing by the Federal Reserve and bond-buying by the European Central Bank, in addition to soothing words out of China’s central bank, gold has risen since mid-August, Patton said. And gold’s gained even as equities have wobbled, which for the time being is a good sign for the yellow metal.
“For a while equities were leading gold and gold was trading as a ‘risk-on’ asset, but gold seems to have changed from that for now. Gold’s become a market leader,” he said.
Patton said gold could try and target $1,800 an ounce next week and if successful, could find enough momentum to reach $1,825. Support for the metal is at $1,750 and $1,725.
Adam Klopfenstein, market strategist with Archer Financial Services, is also bullish gold, based on the underlying fundamentals. “Gold is really not breaking (lower) with equity weakness and dollar strength, which tells me gold is in the beginning of a decoupling period with other commodities. I’m looking for a resurgence to the upside. I think we’re going to tackle the $1,815 level, which is a shallow rally from where we are now based on a percentage move,” Klopfenstein said.
While Patton is bullish gold and would buy here, he is also keeping an eye on equities.
Some of the market leaders in equities like Apple (APPL) and Google (GOOG) are wobbling and that is giving him some concern. “S&Ps are showing a head-and-shoulders top and some of the market leaders are too. If we break the neckline, we could fall to 1,385. And if that happens it’s not good for gold. A fall of that size would pull down gold, even though I think gold is acting as a risk-off asset now,” Patton said.
A head-and-shoulders formation on a technical chart is formed when a market makes three distinct peaks on a chart. The market rises to a peak, then falls, which is considered the left shoulder. It rises to a second, higher peak, then falls, which marks the head. The right shoulder is formed when the market rises again, but not as high as the left shoulder. A neckline is formed at the bottom of the two shoulders. Patton counts a left shoulder on Sept. 7, the head on Sept. 14, and the right shoulder on Sept. 27, with the neckline at 1425. A measurement of peak to trough would measure the extent of a possible fall if the market falls through the neckline.
Economic data next week brings the U.S. September employment report, which is always an important report to watch. Last month the unemployment rate nudged down to 8.1%, but that’s because there were fewer workers. Patton said he wouldn’t be surprised if it happened again.
Also next week, more global manufacturing data will be released with China and Europe announcing Purchasing Managers Index data, while the U.S. ISM manufacturing index also is slated for release.
Allen Sykora contributed to this story.
By Debbie Carlson